Fiber to my prem!

Yesterday my home was connected to the real interweb superhighway, via a fancy fiber optic connection from Verizon.

I was forced to downgrade my speed to 5mb from the 8-10mb connection Comcast was providing, but I am saving a few bucks a month and it's not Comcast...

No TV service in Oregon yet. I am sure that it's coming soon, but Verizon is probably dealing with franchise issues. So far so good, a steady 5mb down and 2mb up.

AT&T Callvantage Review

AT&T CallVantage

And Whole House Wiring

I recently decided to try VoIP in my home. When I built my house I was sure to wire the entire house with 2 runs of Cat5 cable to each room. This allowed me to have voice and data throughout the house. Before you ask why I didn't just go wireless, lets just say that I am tired of the interference on my laptop from my cordless phone and my microwave, our baby monitor, the neighbors wireless router and every other 2.4/5.8GHz product on the market. Besides I run a true network in my house for file and print and media sharing so really there is no alternative but to use a 100Mb network. 11mb (I have Macs that are not ready for Extreme cards) just wouldn't get me the stable bandwidth I needed.

So back to my wiring. All of my voice/data/AV runs terminate in a wiring panel in my garage, as seen above.

It's a pretty nice system. The blue cables are data, the grays are voice and the white are AV. Comcast (AT&T Broadband at the time) provided all my cable TV, phone and Internet. When the installers first came out they were prepared to run lots of wire through my house to provide all three services. I showed them that all they had to do was run the two cables to the panel in the garage, one for TV/Internet the other for digital phone.

The installers were not quite sure what to make of this or how it worked. I am not sure what kind of training these guys get but it didn't seem like any of them had ever worked in the Telco/data world. I quickly directed them where to plug in each cable in the panel and then walked around the house testing each TV and phone. They were amazed, the entire install took 10 minutes. They lingered for a few minutes in front of the 65" HDTV drooling over the picture (which was provided for free over the air not by the cable) and then were on their way to the next install.

I have recently been looking for ways to eliminate any services that I could from Comcast. I used to work for AT&T Business so was pleased to pay for the service before it was sold to Comcast, I am not happy with the way Comcast raises prices EVERY year on all of their services. I am also not very pleased with the slow roll-out of HDTV. So the quickest and easiest service to replace was the Digital Phone. Now to this point I have been very satisfied with the service. In the 3 years I have had it I have only had one brief outage. But, I am looking to save some money.

I decided to go with AT&T CallVantage, primarily because of my experience as an employee. Every field office at AT&T utilizes "T's" Internet backbone to provide VoIP between all the offices and to the PSTN. The call quality was always fantastic, granted they provide the network, where I am using Comcast’s network (which I suspect rides the AT&T backbone) but with a 10Mb/768Kb internet connection I was confident that it would be fine.

The question that I had for everyone but no one could answer: Would I be able to place the TA in my panel and connect it via a punch down to my whole house system. The answer is yes. The only thing I had to do was strip the RJ11 that comes out of the TA and punch the single pair down onto the demark block. Worked great. I was initially concerned that the ring voltage would not handle the 6 phones I have in my house and that the ring would not work properly. No Need to be worried, it works great even providing enough voltage to ring 2 old Western Electric rotary phones. there is one problem however with these old phones. The TA does not support pulse dialing so the rotary phones are only good for answering calls or joining calls in progress. Oh well. I am looking for a solution however and I'll update this if I find it.

The quality was what I expected, very clear and never a problem with drop out or garble. I did have a real problem early on with my internet connection dropping off on a regular basis, almost daily. It coincided with when we switched to VOIP, I was stumped as was AT&T tech support (not hard to do by the way). Another symptom I was having was that the phone would ring and when you went to answer it, it would disconnect immediately. Turns out that it was my cable modem. An original RCA model from 7 years ago when cable internet first came to Portland. My modem had actually been bad for a very long time, I just didn't notice. We would occasionally lose internet connectivity and have to rest the modem and router to bring it back. But since we only used the internet intermittently, we never noticed the intermittent disconnects. The new modem is perfect and we have only had one incident that required a reboot.

One suggestion I would make, get a backup UPS system for your internet connection. Plug your cable modem, router, and VOIP TA into it and you will not lose phone service if the power goes out. Another benefit is if you have a laptop and wireless you will still be able to surf the web as well.

Apple V. Netflix

I decided to look and see if there was any validity to the argument that if Apple were to offer subscription based rentals they would lose money if you rented more than say five movies a month.

Lets look at the Netflix financial statement and see if we can get some perspective:

Netflix latest revenue numbers for the six months ending June '06 was $463.4 million dollars. The costs of those revenues were $298.8 million. Subscriber costs were $254.8 million, Cost of subscription revenues consists of revenue sharing expenses, amortization of their DVD library, and postage and packaging expenses related to shipping titles to paying subscribers. Then there was the fulfillment expense, $44.1 million, which consist of expenses incurred in operating and staffing their shipping and customer service centers, including costs attributable to receiving, inspecting and warehousing their DVD library. Fulfillment expenses also include credit card fees.

Now based on those numbers, 64% of Netflix revenue goes towards costs associated with getting there product to their customers. Now I work in the Transportation/Logistics industry and I can tell you that even the largest manufactures transportation expense typically don't exceed 10% of gross revenue.

So my argument that Apple or any other company doing digital rental would not be concerned with high volume renters seems valid. No inventory means no associated costs. The only costs would be the content, which would surely be encoded by the studios eliminating that expense. Storage, which would be far less than trying to maintain 32 DC's and the associated inventory. Transmission facilities, which these days fiber is cheap. Plus all the costs associated with the transactions on iTunes, which can be shared with the music and movie purchase services. Realistically, I bet the costs associated with subscribers would be substantially less than Netflix. In addition marketing costs would be less as well, owing to that fact that there are almost 60 million iPods out there all running off of iTunes, so you have a built in advertising and marketing medium.

Could it work, I am positive that it would. The only constraint would be the number of broadband households.

The Apple iTV, Netflix has been gutshot!

Tuesday Sept. 12th Apple Computer outlined a new product. I am not talking about the new iPods, or the iTunes Movies, we all new those were coming. What I am talking about is the iTV (or as Robert X. Cringely calls it, Airport Video Express). This little device will sit on top of your TV and allow you to view your iTunes library which will include, TV shows, movies, iPhoto slide shows and music. Big deal you say, there are already several products out there that can do that, well sort of, none of them are really capable of integrating with iTunes. Most of them are classified as networking products and are tied to Windows and its DRM schemes. What is so interesting about the iTV is that it is not a MediaCenter PC or a networking device. It is a simple front end for users to interact with iTunes via Frontrow. It is designed to be simple and easy to use. No configuring a MediaCenter PC or need to understand TCP/IP or have any idea what CODEC was used to encode your media. If it's in your iTunes library, it will play on the iTV, pretty simple, and simple sells product to the general public. They want to plug it in and turn it on and have it work, just the way their iPod, or DVD player works. Imagine connecting your iTV via the HDMI or component cables to the TV, turning it on and seeing a list of available Movies, TV shows, Music or Photos. Then simply selecting your choice and enjoying it. Sort of like changing the channel on your cable box or choosing an on demand movie...wait, what if..


Has Netflix just been shot in the gut?

You know those gunshot wounds that all the secondary charters in western movies get. These are the gunshot wounds that end up being a slow agonizing fatal shot. So how does Netflix fit here? Let me explain.


Netflix today enjoys a very nice position in the video rental business, I am a user and enjoy the service very much. But I have one complaint, well probably several but one major complaint. I have to go to the mailbox to get my movie and then I have to send my movies back, then wait for my movies to be received and checked in then wait for my new movies to be delivered to me...Due to this process and forgetfulness on my part, I tend to visit the local Hollywood Video a few times a month. For Netflix it's a very effective technique to maximize revenue by limiting your unlimited movie viewing. The general consensus is that Netflix losses money if you view more than 5 movies a month, so this process seems to slow your viewing down. Bully for them, but I want more...

My Dream Device

My perfect world would have all of my movies pre-loaded on my DVR. I want something similar to the on demand system that my cable company has but I want better movies and faster interface response. I also want all the movies in HD, Comcast does offer some HD content but it is very limited. I really have no desire to see The Birdcage in HD. So the ideal solution would be to download my Netflix movies direct to a set-top box and infact Netflix has considered it but apparently ran into a few snags, namely the movie studios, If they do get it going though, they still don't see it happening anytime soon, the CEO of Netflix says that downloads will be ready for prime time in five to ten years! That is why they will be late to the party.

Then there is Moviebeam, While the concept is awesome and the delivery system ideal, the content part of the equation is terrible, It works by downloading movies over the air to your Moviebeam set-top box, thanks to a network of PBS stations, The box comes pre-loaded with 100 movies at the point of sale. After that 10 new movies are loaded each week replacing older movies on the system. First thing that hits me is what if I haven't watched the movies I wanted to watch? To bad so sad, el-deleteo. Second, what ten movies are being sent to me, and do I have any interest in seeing them? To bad so sad, you get to watch Stealth and you'll like it! So the drawbacks for Moviebeam basically come down to selection, choose from a predefined list and that's it, no choice, no extensive catalog of movies, no obscure artsy or foreign films. If it wasn't a feature at the googleplex, then it probably won't be offered. Then there is Vongo, a PC based download service. Another fantastic idea but to many limitations, the first of which is the poor quality of the video. Secondly the rate structure, $10 per month AND $4 for new release PPV. Lastly, I want to watch movies on my 65" HDTV, not my 20" computer monitor. I know I know I could hook my computer to my TV via the VGA connector and the redirect my video blah blah blah, or I could just rent a dvd....I am not interested in setting up a MediaPC, my wife can't even work the stinking universal remote, how could I expect her to figure out a MediaCenter PC. I WANT EASE OF USE PERIOD! I want to turn it on select the movie and watch it where I normally enjoy my movies, in my Man-Room, not the den!

So imagine if you will, Apple introduces the iTV (or whatever they end up calling it) and it plays all of your iTunes media ON YOUR TV! and probably any other media you manage to get onto your computer provided it plays in QuickTime. But with one new feature, video rental. For $15-20 dollars a month download 3 movies at a time and watch them WHENEVER you want, not within some idiotic time frame like 48 hours. You also can keep them until you delete them so watch it 50 times or over the course of a month, whatever, it doesn't matter because you only get three active downloads at a time. Delete one and the next one in your queue automatically downloads to refill your iTV. The movie studios would never go for it you say? Ah, but THEY don't have to, there only needs to be one, and that one will be Disney. Disney is totally on board with this type of service, they were the original owners of Moviebeam which has since been spun off with backing from Cisco and Intel..

So they will be the first to offer rentals over iTunes just like they are the first to sell movies over iTunes. The other Studios will follow suite just as they did with the TV shows. The Fairplay DRM from Apple seems to be pretty effective in limiting all but the geekyist from bootlegging iTunes content, and I have yet to here of anyone copying their Desperate Housewife's downloads to DVD. So the studios can be fairly sure that the content will be secure. Certainly more secure than DVD's and they have no qualms about renting them.

So what it will come down to is competition. Apple and Disney certainly see eye to eye on this. Especially since Jobs is the biggest single share holder and a member of the board. This relationship and the subsequent success of iTunes movies and I predict an iTunes Rental Service, will require that the other Studios follow suit. I mean if Mickey Mouse trusts Apple to do it then shouldn't everyone...

Huh?

They are seriously proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States to repeal the 22nd amendment. That's the one about Presidential term limits!

Here is the second highest ranking Democrat in the house, Rep. Steny Hoyer...Steny, really that's your name...

A snipit from his Bio:

"Congressman Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland's Fifth Congressional District is now serving his second term as the House Democratic Whip, the second-ranking position among House Democrats. Congressman Hoyer was unanimously elected by his colleagues in the Democratic Caucus to serve in this leadership position, in which Hoyer is charged with building unity among House Democrats and delivering the Democratic Party's message."

I added the emphasis because it was my favorite part.

Change is Crap!

Why do companies insist on changing their products every 6 months?

Case in point: We have 2 year old twin girls. We use a lot of diapers and wipes as you can imagine. We have decided that the Pampers wipes were our best choice. They are not the cheapest but not the most expensive. They also seemed to really help in keeping diaper rash to a minimum and they had aloe for a babies bottom that is as smooth as, well a babies bottom.

Then they started changing them. Every once in a while they would include in the box of 5 packages (the box was clearly designed to hold 6) a note telling you that this box had an "improved" wipe and to please phone them with comments, but who has time. We first started to notice a change in the feel of the formula in the wipe. Before there was a residue, for lack of a more accurate description, that was left after use. I am sure that was a combination of the Aloe and the dimethicone (silicone oil). Then the wipe material started to change. First ins feel or weave then in size and thickness.

After all of these "improved" formulas, it seems they have finally settled on a final version. We are not pleased. The wipe is smaller dryer and does not dispense from the plastic case Pampers provides for use with the refill packs. It constantly pulls two or three sheets at a time.

So why must companies constantly change their products? Why is it that every time I try to find my deodorant at the store I am forced to look closely to realize that they changed the packaging and my ability to just glance at the shelf and pick the package that I see every morning in my bathroom drawer is "improved", what was wrong with it before? I liked it and I assume that others did to. When will companies work as hard to keep an existing customer as they do to win new customers. Are they really trying to draw people in at the point of sale with some splashy new package. It's rather annoying to say the least.

Now I am not naive, I understand that all of this change is profit motivated, but how much incremental increase do they really see. How many customers do they lose because of this improvement. I choose a product because I like it and it works for me. I continue to use that product because it continues to meet my needs. But if you change it, you run the risk of not meeting those needs. When is good enough enough? Seriously do we need six blades on our razors!

Africa Hot

I love Oregon summers. It is the reason so many of us stay in Oregon even after 9 moths of rain. The heat we are experiencing now is more appropriate in Phoenix or Death Valley and no one likes living in those places in the summer.

So what is the reason for all this hot weather, clearly it's all the SUV's...

I find it humorous that every time we have a "heat wave" people start talking about how it must be global warming and that it just a sign of things to come...

How long has it been coming?

Sunday tepratures in Portland and Vancouver hit 103, the hottest July 23rd in Portland since 1991 and in Vancouver since 1927. Clearly the end is near...

1000 Feet and 16 Worms

Well the family spent the weekend at our Hailey Idaho cabins this last weekend, 5 fun filled days in some of the most beautiful country in the world.

Friday we spent in Boise visiting some of Amy's college friends their husbands and kids. Marcus had a good time since he had access to a community pool in the development Heather and Joe lived in. Boise is nice but it is still Idaho.

Saturday morning I went for a hike up what I think is called "carbonate". Its a 1000 foot hill/mountain just across the river from the cabin. I have looked at it for almost 10 years now wondering what was on top. Well this year I was in good enough shape to give it a climb. 1k feet in just under 40 minutes. Not bad for a former smoker who just started running 6 months ago. This is a view from the top...

I will however admit to one appalling incident. I was lapped not once but twice by a women, well skeleton with skin would be more appropriate. She must have been in her late 40's JOGGING up the mountain carrying dumb-bells. I could not believe it was happening and was amazed. I have some pictures from my Canon, but due to a mix up with my sister in-law, they are on her CF card, so these camera snaps will due until I get my pics back.

Marcus and I fished all day with Amy's dad, Danny, along the Wood River. It was very high and very fast, I almost took a swim on several occasions trying to get to just the right spot to make my casts. A lot of fun but no fish, a first for me on the Wood.

The weather was very warm all weekend so Sunday was spent in the cabins most of the day.

Monday we could not stand the heat any longer so we had to get down to the frigid river and attempt to swim in the ridiculous current. It was actually pretty fun. Marcus had a blast jumping off some rocks and floating the current down a few yards to a shallow area and then repeating over and over and over.... I was a little nervous because the river was very fast and very cold and he didn't have a vest on so I kept him on the low rocks. Next time he'll have a vest and I'll be a little less worried.